Production and stocks

Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (SORS)

Industry and Energy Department,

Group for short-term industry statistics

Katarina Zivojinovic

Head of group for short-term Industry statistics

Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Milana Rakica 5, 11 000 Belgrade, Serbia

katarina.zivojinovic@stat.gov.rs

+381 11 2411 852, extension 215

No fax.

Industrial production index (IPI) is applied for measuring changes in the volume of industrial production in monthly periodicity. Indices of industrial production are derived from the Monthly Survey of Industry (IND–1).

• National classification of economic activities – KD (2010) based on NACE Rev.2 classification (Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community, Rev.2).
• Main Industrial Groupings (MIGs).
• Nomenclature of industrial products for Monthly Survey of Industry (NIP)– 8 digits level (based on National classification of economic activities).

Enterprises with principal activity classified in NACE Rev.2 sections B (Mining and quarrying), C (Manufacturing), or D (Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, except group 35.3) of NACE Rev.2. Included are also selected business entities whose main activity is not in section B, C or D but that have significant industrial production in these sections (as secondary activity).

IPI measures the change in the volume of production of products (goods and services) according to the Nomenclature of industrial products for Monthly Survey of Industry. The Nomenclature covers products within sections B, C and D (Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, group 35.3 excluded). There are weights on product level. Quality change regarding physical volumes has being taken into account when changes occur by updating the weights.

The following variables are collected from each reporting unit for each industrial product in physical volume according to physical units defined by the NIP: Total production in reporting month, total production for period from the beginning of the reference year to the end of the reporting month (cumulative), state of stocks of finished products at the end of reporting month and sale of products from the beginning of the year to the end of the reporting month (volume).

Production for own account and production on contract basis are covered.

Calculation of Industrial production index is based on physical volume of all produced products (with no matter whether products are sold, put into stocks or used for further production). The index is compiled in accordance with concept and definitions from STS European Communities Council Regulation  concerning short–term statistics and its amendments.

More information could be found on the SORS website  http://www.stat.gov.rs/en-US/istrazivanja/methodology-and-documents/?a=06&s=0

Observation units are enterprises with main activity in sections B, C and D (group 35.3 excluded) of NACE Rev.2. as well as enterprises whose main activity is not industry, but have production in sectors B, C and D as a secondary activity. Statistical unit is kind of activity unit (KAU).

Enterprises registered in sections B, C and D of NACE Rev.2 and KAUs with industrial activity belonging to enterprises outside sections B, C and D of NACE Rev.2.

In IPI calculation 1602 enterprises and KAUs are involved. Business register is the frame for identifying enterprises and KAUs. The sample is derived from the national business register and it is continuously updated. All large and medium enterprises are included and some`` statistically important units`` by decision of statistical experts.

Republic of Serbia.

Remark: Starting from 1999 the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia do not have data available for the Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohiaand. Тherefore these data are not included in the coverage for the Republic of Serbia (total).

Industrial production of the units located outside of the territory of the Republic of Serbia is not included.

There are time series indices for the period since January 2000.

Time series are available as gross; seasonally and calendar adjusted indices; and calendar adjusted, but not seasonally adjusted indices.  

The base (reference) period for calculating the index of industrial production is the average of the previous year. Thеse are chain indices. In 2023, industrial production indices were calculated in relation to the year 2022 average.

However, for sending to Eurostat, base indices of industrial production are used. The entire multi-year series of chain indices is recalculated to a common base year.  In 2023, that base year was 2015.

Starting from January 2024, there was a change in both referent periods. For chain indices, the new base period is 2023. For base indices (which are submitted to Eurostat), the new base year is 2021. Accordingly, the entire series of base indices, from January 2000 onwards, has been recalculated to the year 2021.

Indices.

Calendar month. Reporting units complete questionnaires until the 12^th of the current month for the preceding month.

National legal bases for conducting the Monthly Survey of Industry is regulated by the Official Statistics Law (“Official Gazette of RS”, No 104/2009), as well as Resolution on the Programme of Official Statistics of the Republic of Serbia over 2021-2025 (“Official Gazette of RS“, No. 24/21), Classification of activities (Official Gazette of the RS``, No. 54/2010) and Regulation on the plan of official statistics for 2023.  Official statistics law states that all persons who manage or represent legal entities are obliged to provide the SORS with reliable data. There is obligation on units to provide data regarding monthly production, state of stocks of finished products at the end of reporting month and sale of products from the beginning of the year to the end of the reporting month (volume). The survey is included into the Regulation on defining the plan of official statistics – it is compulsory.

Legal acts are available in SORS website: http://www.stat.gov.rs/en-US/o-nama/dokumenti

EU Legislation:

• Regulation (EC) No 1893/2006 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 December 2006 establishing the statistical classification of economic activities NACE Rev. 2,
• Regulation (EU) No 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 November 2019 on European business statistics (EBS-Regulation),
• Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) No 2020/1197 of 30 July 2020 concerning short-term statistics as regards the definition of variables, list of variables, frequency of data and the classification of the main industrial groupings (MIGs).

Statistical Office makes available the non–confidential data on the SORS website. Data are transmitted to Eurostat through eDamis in unadjusted form and adjusted form.

Industrial production indices are provided to UN.

Data confidentiality is stipulated by:

- Official Statistics Law (Official Gazette of RS, number 104/2009), Articles 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, and 49.

(http://www.stat.gov.rs/media/2322/zakon_o_statisticie.pdf)

- Rulebook on statistical data protection in the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia

https://www.stat.gov.rs/en-US/o-nama/dokumenti      under  Rulebooks and guidelines

- Guidelines on measures of data and information protection in the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia

https://www.stat.gov.rs/en-US/o-nama/dokumenti      under  Rulebooks and guidelines

Data which allow statistical units to be identified, either directly or indirectly are not published. Data are published on the level at which they are not confidential.

Calendar of releases is available at SORS website on the 1st day of December every year for the forthcoming year. 

http://www.stat.gov.rs/en-US/calendar/

All SORS releases are launched at 12.00. Any divergence from the defined time schedule are announced in advance and explained in the Calendar.  

Release Calendar is publicly available on the SORS website:  http://www.stat.gov.rs/en-US/calendar/  

The data obtained through Monthly statistical surveys on industry are released at the internet presentation http://www.stat.gov.rs/en-US/,

 in the database http://data.stat.gov.rs/?caller=SDDB&languageCode=en-US,

in statistical releases and publications http://www.stat.gov.rs/en-US/publikacije/

In line with the Official statistics law (Official Gazette of the RS``, No. 104/2009) and European Statistics Code of Practice all users are treated equitably. Industrial Production Indices are simultaneously accessible to all users on impartial basis; any privileged access by external users before their release is not allowed..  

Data are collected monthly. Frequency of dissemination is monthly.

Press Release and Statistical Release are available each month to all users, free of charge, at 12 o’clock on stated day in the Publications Calendar on SORS website.

Statistical Release is published every month at 12 o`clock on the day specified in Calendar of releases. This release is available in paper and electronic form, bilingual (Serbian, English) and accessible on statistical website. Statistical release contains unadjusted index of industrial production for total industry (B+C+D), MIGs, sections B, C and D (group 35.3 excluded) and divisions.  There are four types of unadjusted indices: referent month compared to average of previous year; referent month compared to the same month of the previous year; period from the beginning of the year to the end of referent month compared to the average of previous year; and period from the beginning of the year to the end of referent month compared to the same period of the previous year. There are some series of seasonally and calendar adjusted industrial production indices for total industry (B+C+D), and for section C (Manufacturing).

Monthly statistical bulletin, it is complex publication in paper and electronic form, bilingual (Serbian, English) and accessible on statistical website. Table that presents industrial production indices is in the Industry chapter. The table contains unadjusted industrial production index for total industry (B+C+D), MIGs, sections B, C and D (group 35.3 excluded). For the current year monthly indices compared to the average of the previous year are presented. For the previous year, monthly indices compared to the average of that year are presented.

Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Serbia - chapter Industry and Statistical Pocketbook of the Republic of Serbia comprises a summary of annual data of industrial production indices.

The database contains unadjusted indices of industrial production indices as chain and аs base indices. Industrial production indices are given for total industry (B+C+D), MIGs, sections B, C and D (group 35.3 excluded) and divisions (05 – 35).

Monthly industrial production indices are available from January 2000 to December 2023. based on the previous year. Also, annual indices from 2000 to 2023 based on the previous year are presented.

During 2023, 2015 was used as the base year. However, from January 2024, base year was changed. Therefore, the entire series of base industrial indices, January 2000 - December 2023, was recalculated to 2021 as base year.

The database is available on line to all users http://data.stat.gov.rs/?caller=SDDB&languageCode=en-US. 

The frequency of updates is monthly, but only seasonally adjusted indices for the current year are visible to users as preliminary data.

   Additionally, time series for ‘’last 13 months’’ based on the 2015 base year are available in table Industrial production indices by sections, MIGs and  divisions. This table is located on the third page of the Monthly releases of industrial production indices (for 2023) and it is opened by pressing the  "+"sign.

Current data are sent monthly to Eurostat via eDamis. Also, there is dissemination on ad-hock request: Special tables may be obtained from the ”Relations with users and e–services".

National methodological document, based on Eurostat`s regulation is available on the statistical website:

 http://www.stat.gov.rs/en-US/istrazivanja/methodology-and-documents/?a=06&s=0

Not available.

The SORS quality management system is relied on the Serbian official statistics mission and vision, as well as on the European Statistics Code of Practice – CoP and the Total Quality Management – TQM principles, which together make the common quality framework of the European Statistical System (ESS).

For more information, please see the documents at http://www.stat.gov.rs/en-US/o-nama/sistem-upravljanja-kvalitetom.

Industrial production index in industry is based on reliable survey data. The level of accuracy is high. Publication of results is punctual, and easy assessable. Industrial production index calculation is based on recommended international methodology. It is internationally comparable since follows EU and relevant international concept, definitions and classifications. Comparability over time is good. Republic of Serbia has required length of time series. Comparability with other statistical domains primarily the turnover in industry is satisfactory.

Monthly Industrial production index measures changes in industrial production among two different time periods. Industrial production index is used for monitoring of current economic developments and for short–term forecasts. It is used by internal users (Quarterly National Accounts), national users (Serbian National Bank, Ministry of finance, other government bodies, Chamber of commerce, representatives of local government, economic analysts in institutes, companies and financial institutions, media, wide public) and international users (Eurostat, UN, IMF).

On biеnnial basis (once every two years), by the means of web interview, implemented is the User Satisfaction Survey. The survey results are available at SORS website: 

http://www.stat.gov.rs/en-US/o-nama/sistem-upravljanja-kvalitetom

Special user satisfaction survey regarding short–term indicators was not conducted so far.

All time series of Industrial production index: total industry, MIGs, sections and divisions based on NACE Rev.2 (2015=100), are available since 2000 according to STS Requirements.

Since the response rate for the Monthly Survey of Industry is about 98% to 99%, overall accuracy is very good.

Sampling error is not measured. Industrial Production Index is calculating based on cut–off survey volume data.

Based on the data on production of industrial enterprises collected in 2023 and the results obtained from processing them, the un-weighted response rate on the level of the Republic of Serbia on average was 99.18.

The weighted response rate in 2023 on the level of Republic of Serbia on average was 99.61%. To calculate the weighted response rate, the '' masses of value added '' of all reporting units for 2022 were used. The reporting unit's '' mass of value added '' is calculated by multiplying the quantity of each product produced by the reporting unit during the previous year by the weighting coefficient for that product (the weighting coefficient is the estimated value added for each product) and the resulting multiplications are summed. Than the share of ‚‚mass of value added‚‚ of each respondent in total ''mass of value added'' is calculated.

Actions to reduce the non–response include sending the informative reminder letters to the respondents, telephone calls, sometimes visiting in case of medium or large sized enterprises.

In the case of unit non–response, some estimation methods are used prior to imputation: based on previous month record, based on production trends of this unit from the beginning of current year up to the end of the previous month, or based on same month of the previous year record.

In the case of item non–response the missing items are requested by telephone calls.

Technical errors are recognized with automated checks which are included in data editing process. A lot of checks are carried out automatically with human interaction.

There are very detailed controls for industrial product levels where. The data of each reporting unit is checked to find possible deviations.

Some aggregate checks exist. Data are checking on different level of aggregations firstly by persons responsible for particular activity divisions, then by supervisors and head of the Unit in charge of IPI calculation.

The Industrial production indices are firstly published on the last working day in a month regarding previous month data. Monthly indices are transmitted to Eurostat in a proper form within required deadlines.

All data are published according to the announced Publications calendar. Link http://www.stat.gov.rs/en-US/calendar

Every deviation from the plan published in the Publications Calendar is previously announced and explained.

Also, there are no deviations from the planned deadlines at any stage of survey implementation.

Industrial production index is representative only for the country level it is not representative for the regions of the country.

SORS applies methodology, which is in line with international standards to calculate Industrial production index. The application of the STS methodological guidelines ensures a good comparability between national data and European aggregates. 

The monthly industrial production indices are presented as time series from January 2000.

Monthly time series for IPI are based on NACE Rev.2 on total industry (B+C+D) level, sections B, C and D (group 35.3 excluded), MIGs, and divisions level.

The transition from NACE Rev.1 to NACE Rev.2 for the period from January 2000 to December 2010 was performed by back casting on micro level. The time series are posted on the SORS website and transmitted to Eurostat.

Monthly indices are presented as time series starting from January 2000 to December 2023 on the base year 2015. However, from the publication of the statistical release for January 2024, the time series of the index of industrial production are recalculated to the base year 2021 (from January 2000 onwards) and submitted to Eurostat.

Time series of the index of industrial production are published on the website of the Statistical Office of Republic of Serbia and submitted to Eurostat every month.

There is a comparison of Monthly Survey of Industry with Annual Survey of Industry (PRODCOM data). 

Comparison with the monthly index of turnover in industry shows a good compliance for total industry level. Also, with annual SBS results regarding value added at factor costs. Annual SBS results are used as weighting coefficient for divisions, sections and MIGs level in Industrial production index calculation. 

The Serbian Industrial Production Index is annual chain–linked Laspeyres index. The IPI higher level indices are annually chain–linked using an annual overlap (annual average of the previous year). The chain linking is performed to hierarchical level of NACE Rev.2 activity divisions, sections, MIGs and total industry. IPI is internally consistent within available time–series since January 2000 for industry total, divisions, sections and MIGs. It is compiled as unadjusted, WDA and SA indices.

IPI adjustments are made for the industry total, MIGs, sections and divisions using direct method i.e. IPI time series are aggregated by NACE Rev.2 and by MIGs and then seasonal adjustments performed independently at each aggregate level

Coherence is achieved by compilation methods and weighting system. IPI for various levels of the NACE Rev.2 are calculated in two stages according to the Laspeyres formula. In the first stage, indices are calculated from quantity data on production of individual products according to the National Nomenclature of Industrial Products and an adequate weighting coefficient, which represents an estimated value added of individual products. In the second stage, all indices of divisions and higher levels are weighted with shares of value added of individual activities of industrial production by the NACE Rev.2 levels.

No information.

Revision calendar is available at: https://www.stat.gov.rs/en-US/kalzarev

The same revision policy is applied for publishing of national data and for data transmitted to Eurostat.

Also, there are some procedures in the Industry Statistics Unit. Some revisions are realized annually, when data from Annual industrial survey (PRODCOM) are available. There is a confrontation with PRODCOM data on product level during the period from April to June.

Industrial production indices for all months of the current year are published and treated as ``preliminary results``. At the end of the year, after possible changes they ``become`` final. Indices are available into statistical database posted on the SORS website. 

Revisions are realized monthly. Revisions due to errors are implemented immediately after detection. The most of revisions of Industrial Production Index are realized because of the availability of more complete data, or additional corrections from respondents. Estimates are replaced with definitive figures when they are available. The most of minor revisions are performed at the beginning of the year, especially for January (new reference period, exchange of units, increased non–response etc.). Size of revisions was not measured so far. Monthly, there are approximately 15–20 minor changes on product level. The most of them does not affect higher levels of IPI (total industry, MIGs, sections). Statistical releases for months February to December contains revised data for the previous month. SORS has no practice to publish final Industrial Industrial production index indices in ``new`` Release form, but put them into statistical database. The users are informed that indices published in Statistical Release are ``preliminary data`` that might be changed.  Minor IPI revisions are not explaining to the users. Revised data are marked in footnotes in the relevant tables of Monthly statistical bulletin.

Also, some revisions are realized annually, when data from Annual industrial survey (PRODCOM) are available. There is a confrontation with PRODCOM data on product level during the period from April to June.

Regular revisions are realized in years ending by 0 or 5 due to the change of base year and weights. Users are informed on those revisions in Note on methodology which is a part of the Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of Serbia and in Note on methodology which follows the Nomenclature of industrial products for Monthly industrial survey. Also, there is a note which follows the IPI in statistical database.

The data source is statistical survey known as ``Monthly survey of Industry IND-1``. The data are obtained from a monthly industrial survey for large and medium sized units (in accordance with the criteria of Business Register). Also, some small units are included according to expert judgment in order to achieve representativeness on division level.  It is cut–off survey. About 1602 enterprises and KAUs are surveyed every month.

Data are collected monthly.

Data are collected with a paper questionnaire (IND–1).  Questionnaires are sent to reporting units by post for all 12 months at the beginning of the year. Also, the questionnaire is located on the website and reporting units can use it. Reporting units may send completed questionnaires by post or e-mail. Telephone contacts are taken in order to increase response rate.

The data entry, completeness check and statistical control are performed both by 16 regional offices of the SORS and by experts in National Statistical institute. Data validation is done during data processing: first, during data entry, then through the IT process of calculating the aggregates. All processing steps from validation to computing the Industrial Production Index is carrying out in automatic IT support system.  IT processing is carried out based on rules designed to detect errors. Some errors are "warning" some are "of great importance" (should be corrected).  The correction of some errors requires contact with the reporting units.

National data validation rules are very strict. There is a validity control of each variable collected within the questionnaire (production, stocks, sell) and connection between them on the unit level. There is a comparison over time (with previous months, with the same month / period of the previous year).

Also, there is validation of the aggregates. Data are verified with regard to the previous month, with regard to the same month of the previous year and also with regard to extreme values.

Before transmission to Eurostat, the structure of the data file and format is checked in detail. The data that should be transmitted to Eurostat are first transferred to the SORS dissemination database, from which they are automatically mapped. Тhen an SDMX-ML data file is formed and submitted to Eurostat via EDAMIS.

The IPI’s calculation is based on the change in the volume of selected representatives. The representatives are the products (8 – digit level of codes from National Nomenclature of Industrial Products). Production is collected in physical units. Also, production under sub–contracting is covered. Non–response is treated by the imputation of data. Two stage weighting system is used.

Compilation practice:

1. Total production is compiled for each product (aggregation of production of all producers). These are then multiplied by a weighting coefficient for product (estimated value added of individual products) to reach a "mass of value added" for all products. Then they are summed to the 3–digit level and 2–digit level of NACE Rev.2.

2. At the 3–digit level and 2–digit level indices are calculated. 2. These indices are multiplied to sections level, MIGs level and total industry level using value added weights of the appropriate 3 –digit level and 2–digit level of NACE Rev.2 from SBS.

In the first step indices at the 3–digit level and 2–digit level of NACE Rev.2 are calculated from volume data on production of individual product and appropriate weighting coefficients on product level using the Laspeyres formula. In a second step indices for sections, MIGs and total industry are calculated by aggregating the indices of the appropriate `` Groups`` of NACE Rev.2 weighted with the ``Group`` share of value added in the total value added.

Weighting coefficients on product level are updated every five years. Starting from 2018, weighting coefficients which are calculated on the basis of unit values of the Survey of values of sold industrial products for 2015 and estimates of value added on the 3–digit level and 2–digit level of NACE Rev.2 obtained from annual SBS for 2015 were used.

The value added weights (activity structure) are calculated from the gross value added at factor cost on the basis of appropriate information from the SBS and corrected by the volume index of production to get an approximation of value added of the previous year. The value added weights (activity structure) are revised annually at the beginning of each year for the calculation of indices in the current year.  

The data is seasonally and calendar adjusted. More information about the seasonal adjustment please see in added file.