Population estimations

Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia

Unit for calculation population estimates, projections and other demographic indicators

Ljiljana Sekulić

Head of Unit

Unit for estimations, projections and demographic indicators

5 Milana Rakica St, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia

ljiljana.sekulic@stat.gov.rs

+381 11 2412922 ext. 264

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Population estimations are prepared in the inter-census period and are based on results of the Census of Population and the results of statistical processing of natural and mechanical movement of the population. 

In preparing estimations by sex, age and type of settlement for the observation year the following data on the level of settlement are used:

- The results of the Population Census of 30 September 2011, by sex and calendar year of birth;

- The results of processing of the statistics of births in the observation year, respectively the number of live births by sex and calendar year of birth;

- The results of processing of the statistics of deaths in the observation year, respectively the number of deaths by sex and calendar year of birth;

- The results of processing of the statistics of internal migrations as follows: the number of immigrants and emigrants in that year, by sex and calendar year of birth.

Population estimations at the level of municipality, areas and regions, as well as estimations by sex, age and type of settlement for the Republic of Serbia, Srbija-sever and Srbija-jug, have been derived by respective aggregations according to the population estimations at the level of settlements. Тhe data shown refer to the beginning of the year  (Januar 1), the middle of the year (average) and the end of the year (December 31).

Regulation on Nomenclature of Statistical Territorial Units ("Official Gazette of RS", No.109/09 and 46/10)

Demography

In our statistical practice, the most precise data on population structure by age and sex are obtained in the population census. During the ten – year lasting period between the two censuses, significant changes take place, both regarding total population number and age and sex structures of population. Therefore, population estimates for post – census years are done on the basis of results of population census and results of processed statistics of natural and mechanical population flows. Population estimates are also calculated for the census year, knowing that population censuses are carried out on March 31^st, and in 2011, the Census was conducted on September 30^th. Thus, the continuity of statistical estimates of population is provided, also including age and sex structure of population for every separate observation year.          

When doing the estimates for 2011 (census year) and 2012 (first post - census year), the following data have been used, on the level of settlements:

·     Results of Census on September 30^th 2011, by sex and calendar year of birth (P_попис);

·     Results of processed statistics of births in 2011 and 2012, i.e. number of live births, by sex, in base and in current year (N₂₀₁₁  и N₂₀₁₂);

·     Results of processed statistics of deaths in 2011 and 2012, i.e. number of deaths, by sex and calendar year of birth, in census and in current year (M_2011, M₂₀₁₂);

·     Results of processed statistics of migrations in 2011 and 2012, i.e. number of immigrants and emigrants, by sex and calendar year of birth, in base and in current year (I₂₀₁₁, I₂₀₁₂, i.e. E₂₀₁₁, E₂₀₁₂). 

Since Census data relate to September 30^th 2011, and estimates to mid - year, in the year of population census, population number was first adjusted to as of January 1^st 2011 (P_p). 

P_{p (1. јануар 2011)} = P_попис - N_{јануар-септембар 2011} + M_{јануар-септембар 2011} - I_{јануар-септембар 2011} + E_{јануар-септембар 2011}                        (1)

P_p – beginning of the year

Afterward, calculated was the population as of December 31^st 2011 (P_k), i.e. January 1^st 2012, on the grounds of natural increase and migrations balance:   

P_{k (31. децембар 2011)}  = P_{p (1. јануар 2011)} + (N₂₀₁₁ - M₂₀₁₁) + (I₂₀₁₁ - E₂₀₁₁)                                                                                (2)

P_k – end of the year

Population estimate for mid – 2011 (June 30^th) presents average number of population on January 1^st and December 31^st, 2011. 

P_{(просек 2011)} = (P_{p (1. јануар 2011)}+ P_{k  (31. децембар 2011)}) / 2                                                                                                    (3)

P – annual average

For every separate age year (x), average number of population in 2002 was calculated as follows:

P_{x (просек 2011)} = (P_{p (x+1)}+ P_{k (x)}) / 2,                                                                                                                                (4)

for the values x = 0, 1, 2 …. 100 and over.

Population estimates for 2012 are performed on the basis of population estimates of January 1^st 2012 and data on natural and mechanical flow of population in 2012. Procedure for making estimates (at the beginning, in the middle and at the end of the year) for 2012, as well as for every current post - census year is the same as the procedure described for the census year, according to the formulae (2), (3) and (4).  

When computing population estimates by sex, age and type of settlement, the basis is found in census and vital statistical data on the level of settlement, as the lowest territorial and administrative observation unit and on such estimates, by further respective aggregation, derived are the estimates for the upper levels: municipalities, areas, regions, as well as estimates by sex, age and type of settlement for the Republic of Serbia, Serbia – North and Serbia – South.  

Statistical unit used is the “number”.

Total population

Data are available at the regional level.

Since 1999, the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia has no information on the AP Kosovo and Metohija, so they are not included in the coverage of the Republic of Serbia data (total).

Data are available for the period from 2011

Not applicable.

Calendar year.

Law on Official Statistics (“Official Gazette of RS”, no.104/09)

Regulation on establishing the Plan on Official Statistics in 2018 (“Official Gazette of RS”, no.120/17)

Program on Official Statistics from 2016 to 2020 (“Official Gazette of RS”, no.55/15)

Not applicable.

Law on Official Statistics (“Official Gazette of RS”, no.104/09)

Not applicable.

30.6. Statistical release on Estimates of population

31.12. Demographic yearbook

http://www.stat.gov.rs/en-US/calendar

The users are informed that the data are published through press releases.

The dynamics of publishing the results of Estimates of population is annual.

Estimates of population for the Republic of Serbia, press release

Demographic yearbook (Republic of Serbia)

http://www.stat.gov.rs/publikacije/?d=14

Municipalities and regions of the Republic of Serbia

http://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2017/PdfE/G201713044.pdf

STATISTICAL YEARBOOK

http://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2017/Pdf/G20172022.pdf

Estimates of population of the Republic of Serbia, by sex, age and type of settlement 2008-2012

http://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2013/PdfE/G20134020.pdf

Estimates of population of the Republic of Serbia by sex, age and type of settlement 2013-2017

http://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2018/PdfE/G201815012.pdf

http://data.stat.gov.rs/?caller=SDDB&languageCode=en-US

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

Demographic yearbook (Republic of Serbia)

http://www.stat.gov.rs/publikacije/?d=14

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

​Apart from demographic application in the analysis of the age structure, population estimates are used in the production of demographic projections, as well as for the calculation of various demographic indicators.

Section for Public Relations and Dissemination in cooperation with the Working group on quality announced the results of the Users’ Satisfaction Survey, 2015.

The data are complete.

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

The data are published according to the calendar of publications.

 The data are comparable.

 The data are comparable.

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

Detailed or complete life tables by specific age, are done on the basis of population census data and vital statistics data in the years around the census and abridged approximate life tables by five-year age groups,are produced annually, on the basis of estimated population number and vital statistics data for the referent year.

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

Not applicable.

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