Population estimations

Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia

Group for demographic analysis, estimates and projections

Dragana Paunović Radulović

Head of Unit

5 Milana Rakica St, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia

dragana.paunovic-radulovic@stat.gov.rs

+381 11 2412922 ext. 264

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Population estimations are based on Census data and the results of statistical processing of the natural and mechanical movements of the population. The results of the assessments are made according to age, sex and type of settlement and are published at the municipal level. Except for population estimation in the middle of the year, which represents the average estimated number of inhabitants this year, there are data on the number of inhabitants at the beginning of the observed year (January 1) and at the end of the same year (December 31).

Regulation on Nomenclature of Statistical Territorial Units ("Official Gazette of RS", No. 109/09 and 46/10).

Demography

In order to calculate population estimates for 2022 (census year), the following data have been used, on the level of settlements:

• Results of Census on September 30^th 2022, by sex and calendar year of birth (P_census);
• Results of processed statistics of births in 2022, i.e. number of live births, by sex, in current year (N₂₀₂₂);
• Results of processed statistics of deaths in 2022, i.e. number of deaths, by sex and calendar year of birth, in current year (M₂₀₂₂);
• Results of processed statistics of migrations in 2022, i.e. number of immigrants and emigrants, by sex and calendar year of birth, in current year (I₂₀₂₂, i.e. E₂₀₂₂). 

The population number was first adjusted to as of January 1^st 2022 (P_p). 

P_{p (1. January 2022)} = P_census - N_{January-September 2022} + M_{January-September 2022} - I_{January-September 2022} + E_{January-September 2022}                        (1)

P_p – beginning of the year

Afterward, calculated was the population as of December 31^st 2022 (P_k), i.e. January 1^st 2023, on the grounds of natural increase and migration balance:   

P_{k (31. December 2022)}  = P_{p (1. January 2022)} + (N₂₀₂₂ - M₂₀₂₂) + (I₂₀₂₂ - E₂₀₂₂)                                                                                (2)

P_k – end of the year

Population estimate for mid – 2022 (June 30^th) presents average number of population on January 1^st and December 31^st, 2022. 

P_{(average 2022)} = (P_{p (1. January 2022)}+ P_{k  (31. December 2022)}) / 2                                                                                                    (3)

P – annual average

For every separate age year (x), the average number of population in 2022 was calculated as follows:

P_{x (average 2022)} = (P_{p (x+1)}+ P_{k (x)}) / 2,                                                                                                                                (4)

for the values x = 0, 1, 2 …. 100 and over.

Population estimates for the following post-census years are performed on the basis of population estimates of January 1^st of the observed year and data on natural and mechanical flow of population in that year. The procedure for making estimates at the beginning, in the middle and at the end of the year for the observed year is the same as the procedure described for the census year, according to the formulae (2), (3) and (4).  

When computing population estimates by sex, age and type of settlement, the basis is found in census and vital statistical data on the level of settlement, as the lowest territorial and territorial-administrative observation unit. By further respective aggregation of population estimates on the settlement level, the estimates are derived for the upper levels: municipalities, areas, regions, as well as estimates by sex, age and type of settlement for the Republic of Serbia, Serbia – North and Serbia – South.

Statistical unit used is the “number”.

Statistical population is total population.

Data are available at the level of the Republic of Serbia and its regions, as well as areas and municipalities.

Since 1998, the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia has no information on the AP Kosovo and Metohija, so they are not included in the coverage of the Republic of Serbia data (total).

Data are available for the period from 1991.

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Number.

Calendar year.

National legislation:

Law on Official Statistics (“Official Gazette of RS”, no.104/09, 24/11);

Program on Official Statistics from 2021 to 2025 (“Official Gazette of RS”, no. 24/21 from 27.3.2021.);

Regulation on establishing the Plan on Official Statistics in 2024 (“Official Gazette of RS”, no.117/2023, from 25.12.2023.).

* The above documents are available at SORS website.

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Data confidentiality is regulated by:

- Law on Official Statistics (“Official Gazette of RS”, no.104/2009, articles 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49).

- Rulebook on statistical data protection in the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia

- Guidelines on measures of data and information protection in the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia

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Calendar of releases is available at SORS website.

Calendar of releases is available at SORS via link: 

https://www.stat.gov.rs/calendar/.

The users are informed that the data are published through press releases.

The dynamics of publishing the results of estimates of population is annual.

Estimates of population for the Republic of Serbia, press release

Demography statistics (Republic of Serbia)

Municipalities and regions of the Republic of Serbia 

Statistical Yearbook

Estimates of population of the Republic of Serbia, by sex, age, and type of settlement 2008-2012

Estimates of population of the Republic of Serbia by sex, age, and type of settlement 2013-2017

All publications on estimated population are available on the SORS website.

The data on estimated population are available on the SORS website.

DevInfo

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Demography statistics (Republic of Serbia)

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In addition to the analytical purpose when analyzing the population age structure, population estimates are used in the development of demographic projections, as well as for the calculation of various demographic indicators.

Every two years, a User Satisfaction Survey is conducted through a web survey.

The results of the survey are available on the SORS website.

The data are complete.

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Data on the population estimate, for the year T are published on 1st July. in year T+1.

In practice, in a five-year dynamic, population estimate for five successive years are published in one unified edition.

The data are published according to the calendar of publications.

 The data are comparable.

Data on the estimated population for the period 1991-2010 were based on the 2002 Census, while estimates for the period 2011-2021 were calculated based on the 2011 Census. Since the 2022 Census, the data have been calculated using the most recent available census data. Although there are no methodological differences between the censuses conducted in 2002, 2011, and 2022, it is evident that using a new basis for calculating estimates represents a certain break in the data series.

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In the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, the revision of the population estimate is not done on the basis of existing documents (research program or adopted recommendations), but on the basis of the opinion of the head of the Group for demographic analysis, estimates and projections. Methodological differences are the criterion for revision of estimates in the intercensal period. Estimates calculated for the years between two censuses are corrected by the results of the new census if the data of two successive censuses are not methodologically comparable.

The first revision of population estimates was made in 2005, for the intercensal period 1991-2002. It was adopted that the revision should be done for the entire inter-census period, considering the weak coverage of external migrations as well as changes in the methodology regarding the definition of the total population. Data and an explanation of the performed audit were published in the annual publication Demographic Statistics for 2006.

The revision of data on population estimates for the period 2002-2011 after the 2011 Population Census, as well as the data for the period 2011-2021 after the 2022 Census, was done only for the purpose of demographic analysis and was not published, considering that in both mentioned censuses there is the same concept of the usual of the population, which satisfies the criterion of comparability.

The following data at the settlement level were used in the preparation of the population estimate:

the results of the Census, as well as the results of processing the statistics of births, deaths and internal migrations.

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