Population projections

Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia

Unit for calculation population estimates, projections and other demographic indicators

Ljiljana Sekulić

Head of Unit

Unit for estimations, projections and demographic indicators

Milana Rakica St, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia

ljiljana.sekulic@stat.gov.rs

+381 11 2412 922 ext.295

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Population projections for the Republic of Serbia, in the period 2011-2041, were done in five variants: low, medium, high, then variant of constant fertility and mortality and variant of zero migration balance. The first three variants have the same combination of mortality and migration hypothesis, but differ only in relation to the adopted variant of fertility. The fourth variant was based on the migration hypothesis as in the first three variants, but constant fertility and mortality is assumed. The fifth variant differs only in relation to the medium variant in terms of the migration hypothesis - this time the zero migration balance is assumed.

The projections were made using the analytical method using the so-called. decomposed method. The analytical method suggests that the hypotheses refer to future changes in the components of population movements, i.e. fertility, mortality and migration by age and gender. Due to the acceptance of the decomposed approach, the hypotheses have been set for the regions, so the projected population of the Republic of Serbia is the sum of the projections of the population of its constituent parts, and not the result of specially set hypotheses. The results of the projections refer to the middle of the year.

Regulation on Nomenclature of Statistical Territorial Units (“Official Gazette of RS”, No.109/09 and 46/10)

Demography

As the base population, the average estimated population by age and sex (up to 80 years and over) in 2011 was used. Estimates were made on the basis of census results on the total population by age and sex on 30 September 2011 and data on natural and mechanical population movements in 2011.

Persons

Total projected population

Data are available at the regional level.

Data are available for the period 2011-2041

Average population estimates for the year 2011

Persons

2011-2041

Law on Official Statistics (“Official Gazette of RS”, no.104/09)

Regulation on establishing the Plan on Official Statistics in 2015 (“Official Gazette of RS”, no.138/14)

Program on Official Statistics from 2016 to 2020 (“Official Gazette of RS”, no.55/15)

Not applicable.

Law on Official Statistics (“Official Gazette of RS”, no.104/09)

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31.1.2014. Population projections of the Republic of Serbia, 2011-2041

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Ten-year periodicity

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Population projections of the Republic of Serbia, 2011-2041

http://www.stat.gov.rs/WebSite/public/ReportView.aspx

Not applicable.

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Population projections of the Republic of Serbia, 2011-2041.

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This indicator is used to monitor changes in the number of inhabitants of a given territory and for demographic analysis, as well, for example, in urban planning construction.

Section for Public Relations and Dissemination in cooperation with the Working group on quality announced the results of the Users’ Satisfaction Survey, 2015.

The data are complete.

Not applicable.

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After completion of the Population Census, population projections are made for the next thirty year period starting from the census year.

Not applicable.

The data are comparable.

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Census data and data on the estimated number of population and data on mortality, fertility and migration.

Ten-year periodicity

Not applicable.

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