Population projections

Period: Every ten years
Year: 2017

01. Contact
02. Metadata update
03. Statistical presentation
04. Unit of measure
05. Reference Period
06. Institutional Mandate
07. Confidentiality
08. Release policy
09. Frequency of dissemination
10. Accessibility and clarity
11. Quality management
12. Relevance
13. Accuracy and reliability
14. Timeliness and punctuality
15. Coherence and comparability
16. Cost and Burden
17. Data revision
18. Statistical processing
19. Comment

01. ContactTop
01.1. Contact organisation

Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia

01.2. Contact organisation unit

Unit for calculation population estimates, projections and other demographic indicators

01.3. Contact name

Ljiljana Sekulić

01.4. Contact person function

Head of Unit

Unit for estimations, projections and demographic indicators



01.5. Contact mail address

Milana Rakica St, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia

01.6. Contact email address



01.7. Contact phone number

+381 11 2412 922 ext.295

01.8. Contact fax number


02. Metadata updateTop
02.1. Metadata last certified
02.2. Metadata last posted
02.3. Metadata last update

03. Statistical presentationTop
03.1. Data description

Population projections for the Republic of Serbia, in the period 2011-2041, were done in five variants: low, medium, high, then variant of constant fertility and mortality and variant of zero migration balance. The first three variants have the same combination of mortality and migration hypothesis, but differ only in relation to the adopted variant of fertility. The fourth variant was based on the migration hypothesis as in the first three variants, but constant fertility and mortality is assumed. The fifth variant differs only in relation to the medium variant in terms of the migration hypothesis - this time the zero migration balance is assumed.

The projections were made using the analytical method using the so-called. decomposed method. The analytical method suggests that the hypotheses refer to future changes in the components of population movements, i.e. fertility, mortality and migration by age and gender. Due to the acceptance of the decomposed approach, the hypotheses have been set for the regions, so the projected population of the Republic of Serbia is the sum of the projections of the population of its constituent parts, and not the result of specially set hypotheses. The results of the projections refer to the middle of the year.

03.2. Classification system

Regulation on Nomenclature of Statistical Territorial Units (“Official Gazette of RS”, No.109/09 and 46/10)

03.3. Coverage - sector


03.4. Statistical concepts and definitions

As the base population, the average estimated population by age and sex (up to 80 years and over) in 2011 was used. Estimates were made on the basis of census results on the total population by age and sex on 30 September 2011 and data on natural and mechanical population movements in 2011.

03.5. Statistical unit


03.6. Statistical population

Total projected population

03.7. Reference area

Data are available at the regional level.

03.8. Coverage - Time

Data are available for the period 2011-2041

03.9. Base period

Average population estimates for the year 2011

04. Unit of measureTop
04. Unit of measure


05. Reference PeriodTop
05. Reference Period


06. Institutional MandateTop
06.1. Institutional Mandate - legal acts and other agreements

Law on Official Statistics (“Official Gazette of RS”, no.104/09)

Regulation on establishing the Plan on Official Statistics in 2015 (“Official Gazette of RS”, no.138/14)

Program on Official Statistics from 2016 to 2020 (“Official Gazette of RS”, no.55/15)

06.2. Institutional Mandate - data sharing

Not applicable.

07. Confidentiality Top
07.1. Confidentiality - policy

Law on Official Statistics (“Official Gazette of RS”, no.104/09)

07.2. Confidentiality - data treatment

Not applicable.

08. Release policyTop
08.1. Release calendar

31.1.2014. Population projections of the Republic of Serbia, 2011-2041

08.2. Release calendar access

Not applicable.

08.3. Release policy - user access

Not applicable.

09. Frequency of disseminationTop
09. Frequency of dissemination

Ten-year periodicity


10. Accessibility and clarityTop
10.1. Dissemination format - News release

Not applicable.


10.2. Dissemination format - Publications

Population projections of the Republic of Serbia, 2011-2041

10.3. Dissemination format - online database



10.4. Dissemination format - microdata access

Not applicable.

10.5. Dissemination format - other

Not applicable.

10.6. Documentation on methodology

Population projections of the Republic of Serbia, 2011-2041.

10.7. Quality management - documentation

Not applicable.

11. Quality managementTop
11.1. Quality assurance

Not applicable.

11.2. Quality management - assessment

Not applicable.

12. Relevance Top
12.1. User needs

This indicator is used to monitor changes in the number of inhabitants of a given territory and for demographic analysis, as well, for example, in urban planning construction.

12.2. User satisfaction

Section for Public Relations and Dissemination in cooperation with the Working group on quality announced the results of the Users’ Satisfaction Survey, 2015.

12.3. Completeness

The data are complete.

13. Accuracy and reliabilityTop
13.1. Overall accuracy

Not applicable.

13.2. Sampling error

Not applicable.

13.3. Non-sampling error and

Not applicable.

14. Timeliness and punctualityTop
14.1. Timeliness

After completion of the Population Census, population projections are made for the next thirty year period starting from the census year.

14.2. Punctuality

Not applicable.

15. Coherence and comparabilityTop
15.1. Comparability - geographical

The data are comparable.

15.2. Comparability - over time

Not applicable.

15.3. Coherence - cross domain

Not applicable.

15.4. Coherence - internal

Not applicable.

16. Cost and BurdenTop
16. Cost and Burden

Not applicable.

17. Data revisionTop
17.1. Data revision - policy

Not applicable.

17.2. Data revision - practice

Not applicable.

18. Statistical processingTop
18.1. Source data

Census data and data on the estimated number of population and data on mortality, fertility and migration.

18.2. Frequency of data collection

Ten-year periodicity

18.3. Data collection

Not applicable.

18.4. Data validation

Not applicable.

18.5. Data compilation

Not applicable.

18.6. Adjustment

Not applicable.

19. CommentTop
19. Comment