Population estimations

Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia

Group for demographic analysis, estimates and projections

Dragana Paunović Radulović

Head of Unit

5 Milana Rakica St, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia

dragana.paunovic-radulovic@stat.gov.rs

+381 11 2403266

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Population estimates are based on census data and on the results of processing statistics on natural population change and migration (internal migration). The estimates are produced by sex, age and type of settlement and are available at the town/city municipality level. In addition to mid-year population estimates, which represent the average estimated population in a given year, data are also available on the population at the beginning of the reference year (1 January) and at the end of the same year (31 December).

Regulation on the Nomenclature of Statistical Territorial Units ("Official Gazette of RS", No. 109/09 and 46/10).

Demography

In order to calculate population estimates for 2022 (census year), the following data have been used, at the settlement level:

• Results of Census on 30 September  2022, by sex and calendar year of birth (P_census);
• Results of processed statistics of births in 2022, i.e. number of live births, by sex, in current year (N₂₀₂₂);
• Results of processed statistics of deaths in 2022, i.e. number of deaths, by sex and calendar year of birth, in current year (M₂₀₂₂);
• Results of processed statistics of migrations in 2022, i.e. number of immigrants and emigrants, by sex and calendar year of birth, in current year (I₂₀₂₂, i.e. E₂₀₂₂). 

The population number was first adjusted to the state as of 1 January 2022 (P_p). 

P_{p (1. January 2022)} = P_census - N_{January-September 2022} + M_{January-September 2022} - I_{January-September 2022} + E_{January-September 2022}                        (1)

P_p – beginning of the year

Subsequently, the population as of 31 December 2022 (Pk) was calculated on the basis of natural increase and net migration:

P_{k (31. December 2022)}  = P_{p (1. January 2022)} + (N₂₀₂₂ - M₂₀₂₂) + (I₂₀₂₂ - E₂₀₂₂)                                                                                (2)

P_k – end of the year

Population estimate for mid – 2022 (30 June) presents average number of population on 1 January and 31 December, 2022. 

P_{(average 2022)} = (P_{p (1 January 2022)}+ P_{k  (31 December 2022)}) / 2                                                                                                    (3)

P – annual average

For every separate age (x), the average number of population in 2022 was calculated as follows:

P_{x (average 2022)} = (P_{p (x)}+ P_{k (x+1)}) / 2,                                                                                                                                (4)

for the values x = 0, 1, 2 …. 100 and over.

Population estimates for the subsequent post-census years are based on the population estimates as of 1 January of the reference year and on data on natural increase and migration during that year. The procedure for producing population estimates at the beginning, middle and end of the reference year is analogous to the procedure applied in the census year, according to the formulae (2), (3) and (4).  

In producing population estimates by sex, age and type of settlement, the basis is found in census and vital statistical data at the settlement level, which represents the lowest territorial-administrative unit of observation. Based on settlement-level estimates, estimates for higher territorial levels municipalities, areas, and regions—are derived through aggregation, as are estimates by sex, age, and type of settlement for the Republic of Serbia, Serbia–North, and Serbia–South.

The statistical unit used is the number.

The statistical population is the total population.

Data are available at the level of the Republic of Serbia and its regions, as well as areas and municipalities.

Since 1998, the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia has no information on the AP Kosovo and Metohija, so they are not included in the coverage of the Republic of Serbia data (total).

Data are available for the period from 1991.

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Number.

Calendar year.

National legislation:

Law on Official Statistics (“Official Gazette of RS”, no.109/25)

Program on Official Statistics from 2026 to 2030 (“Official Gazette of RS”, no. 109/25 from 03.12.2025.)

Regulation on establishing the Plan on Official Statistics in 2026 (“Official Gazette of RS”, no. 4/26, from 16.1.2026.)

* The above documents are available at SORS website.

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Data confidentiality is regulated by:

- Law on Official Statistics (“Official Gazette of RS”, no.109/2025).

- Rulebook on statistical data protection in the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia

- Guidelines on measures of data and information protection in the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia

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Calendar of releases is available at SORS website.

Calendar of releases is available at SORS via link: 

https://www.stat.gov.rs/calendar/.

Users are informed through press releases that the data have been published.

The dynamics of publishing the results of estimates of population is annual.

Estimates of population for the Republic of Serbia, press releases

Demography statistics (Republic of Serbia)

Municipalities and regions of the Republic of Serbia 

Statistical Yearbook

Estimates of population of the Republic of Serbia, by sex, age, and type of settlement 2008-2012

Estimates of population of the Republic of Serbia by sex, age, and type of settlement 2013-2017

Estimates of population of the Republic of Serbia by sex, age, and type of settlement 2018-2022

All publications on estimated population are available on the SORS website.

The data on estimated population are available on the SORS website.

DevInfo

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Demography statistics (Republic of Serbia)

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In addition to their analytical use in analysing the age structure of the population, population estimates are also used in the development of demographic projections, as well as in the calculation of various demographic indicators.

Every two years, a User Satisfaction Survey is conducted through a web survey.

The results of the survey are available on the SORS website.

The data are complete.

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Data on the population estimate for year T are published on 1 July in year T+1.

The data are published according to the calendar of publications.

 The data are comparable.

Data on the estimated population for the period 1991-2010 were based on the 2002 Census, while estimates for the period 2011-2021 were calculated based on the 2011 Census. Since the 2022 Census, the data have been calculated using the most recent available census data. Although there are no methodological differences between the censuses conducted in 2002, 2011, and 2022, it is evident that using a new basis for calculating estimates represents a certain break in the data series.

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In the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, the revision of the population estimate is not done on the basis of existing documents (research program or adopted recommendations), but on the basis of the opinion of the head of the Group for demographic analysis, estimates and projections. Methodological differences are the criterion for revision of estimates in the intercensal period. Estimates calculated for the years between two censuses are adjusted using the results of the new census if the data from two successive censuses are not methodologically comparable.

The first revision of population estimates was carried out 2005, for the intercensal period 1991-2002. It was agreed that the revision should be done for the entire intercensal period, considering the incomplete coverage of external migrations as well as changes in the methodology regarding the definition of the total population. Data and an explanation of the performed audit were published in the annual publication Demographic Statistics for 2006.

The audit of data on population estimates for the period 2002-2011 after the 2011 Population Census, as well as the data for the period 2011-2021 after the 2022 Census, was done only for the purpose of demographic analysis and the results of the revision were not published, considering that in both mentioned censuses there is the same concept of the usual population, which satisfies the criterion of comparability.

The population estimates were based on the results of the population census and statistical data on births, deaths, and internal migration.

Data collection is on an annual basis.

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